'Deliberate and Strategic': Why Savannah Guthrie Didn't Make Million Dollar Reward Before Now, According to Private Intelligence Expert
Savannah Guthrie did the right thing by waiting to increase the reward for the return of her mother, according to an expert.
Feb. 25 2026, Published 1:45 p.m. ET
Savannah Guthrie's decision to significantly up the reward for information leading to the return of her missing mom was purposely delayed while detectives carried out their initial searches, RadarOnline.com can reveal.
The Today show anchor is now offering one million dollars for tips, nearly a month after Nancy Guthrie was taken from her home.
The Waiting is the Hardest Part
Nancy Guthrie has been missing for nearly a month now.
As Radar reported, Savannah wanted to offer the hefty reward much sooner in the case, but was advised to wait.
That was the right move, top extortion experts say, even though it has been weeks since the 84-year-old Nancy was last seen.
"Based on my experience handling complex kidnapping, extortion, and crisis resolution investigations nationally, this case follows a pattern where strategy and timing often matter more than immediate public action," Toby Braun, founder of American Special Investigative Group, told Radar.
Braun explained that in kidnapping for ransom cases, leading with a large reward could actually put the victims at a disadvantage.
"You do not offer a million dollars upfront only to invite a higher counter demand," he noted. "The proper approach is to determine whether the kidnappers make contact, assess their demands, obtain proof of life, gather intelligence, and negotiate from there, often attempting to narrow the gap and reach a controlled resolution."
A Slew of New Tips
Savannah Guthrie has just upped the reward to one million dollars
Indeed, the FBI announced it has received more than 750 new tips after Savannah raised the reward. If she had offered the million dollars earlier, it could have crippled the tip lines.
"Waiting was a deliberate and strategic decision, not inaction," Braun continued. "The objective is to understand who you are dealing with, what they want, and whether a viable negotiation exists.
"If proof of life and terms had been presented earlier, the family would have been positioned to respond financially at that point. From a crisis resolution standpoint, this approach aligns with standard negotiation principles."
'Sloppy' Kidnapper Has Nowhere to Run
Experts say the kidnapper left behind plenty of clues.
Meanwhile, Braun insists it's only a matter of time now before the "sloppy" kidnapper is caught.
"I think this guy is a complete amateur who got lucky so far," the expert said.
Braun analyzed the security video of the suspect recorded from Nancy's porch and identified several sloppy mistakes.
"The gloves he’s wearing would prohibit him from using ultra-fine motor skills like using the gun or picking a lock. Or anything else for that matter, requiring precise finger movements," he noted, adding, "The mask is a huge clue. I can see his skin color and mustache. Plus, the eyes are revealing. Not a pro."
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The Kidnapper's Biggest Mistakes
The kidnapper's clothing and accessories could lead to his capture.
The intelligence expert also said the man caught on camera did not know how to accessorize his wardrobe.
"The backpack…You don’t need all that gear unless you're operating alone," Braun explained. "The gun/holster is the most amateur setup I've seen. Not a trained person."
Braun said the man may be working with an accomplice, but he was the "mastermind" behind the abduction...if you could call him that.
"I'm very confident that he will be caught. Law enforcement will identify him. Either from the ongoing investigation or someone is going to recognize him," he predicted. "Law enforcement knows a lot more than what is being revealed."
