Fox News Host Left Baffled By James Talarico's Lead Over Ken Paxton in Senate Race — as Conservative Guest Begs 'Texans Have to Wake Up'
James Talarico's polling numbers had Fox News asking questions.
Oct. 5 2026, Updated 11:15 a.m. ET
Ainsley Earhardt questioned a Fox News poll on Friday that showed Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race.
On a recent installment of Fox & Friends, the television personality asked guest Clay Travis how a 7-point Democratic advantage was possible in the state.
Clay Travis Still Believes Ken Paxton Will Win
Clay Travis still believes in Paxton.
Travis responded, "Texans have to wake up."
However, he also had faith in GOP voters. He suggested that voters who have watched Republicans win for generations do not believe a Democrat can win, and pointed out that he had been seeing Republican political ads dominate sports broadcasts as midterms Election Day approaches.
“I believe Ken Paxton is going to win," he added.
Fox News Talarico-Paxton Poll
Talarico is considered one of the most formidable statewide Democratic challengers in 30 years.
Among 881 likely voters surveyed September 24-28, Talarico led 51 percent to 49 percent, inside the margin of error. The 7-point gap is in the registered-voter sample, up from 3 in July.
Talarico's rating is 8 points positive. Meanwhile, Paxton, the state attorney general, is 18 points underwater, and Republicans are six times more likely to view him unfavorably than Democrats are to view Talarico unfavorably, according to the poll.
20 percent of likely voters who backed Sen. John Cornyn in the March primary now support the Democrat.
No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994.
Paxton Is Working Against His Reputation
Paxton has had an uphill battle because of his past corruption cases.
Paxton won a hard-fought primary battle against Cornyn in a May runoff, and in the general election, he faces multiple concerns about past allegations of corruption.
The Texas House impeached him in 2023 on corruption charges, the Senate acquitted him, and the securities-fraud case that hung over him for years ended without a trial. He remained popular enough, through President Donald Trump's endorsement, with the primary electorate to beat a sitting senator, but he is having trouble winning over the state.
Money Has Been a Factor in Talarico-Paxton Race
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The 2026 Texas senate race has drawn a considerable amount of money.
Money has been a big topic as the race heads down the home stretch. Earhardt cited a $ 122million Republican ad blitz and Talarico's $68.6million haul through June, compared with $9.2million for Paxton.
Outside groups tied to Senate Republicans spent $122million in September after buying less than $6million in the three months after the nomination, with another $66million reserved through Election Day.
Travis said the spending could be why Paxton will win.
