Mystery Trader Made $400K Betting on Venezuelan Dictator Nicolás Maduro's Capture — and Online Sleuths Speculate 'It Could Be Barron Trump'
Barron Trump could be behind the bet, according to theorists.
Jan. 7 2026, Published 12:40 p.m. ET
A mystery trader bet $400,000 on Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro getting captured, with online sleuths suspecting it could be Barron Trump, RadarOnline.com can reveal.
On December 27, a new account was launched on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency prediction market.
Donald Trump claimed the U.S. is in charge of Venezuela after Maduro was captured.
Once the account was created, it placed a series of bets, all of which were focused on the same topic: the United States military landing in Venezuela and getting Maduro out of power by January 31.
When the account began, the estimated probability of this happening, according to Polymarket, was six percent.
The account put $32,538 into Polymarket to bet on this.
Hours after Donald Trump announced the U.S. had invaded Venezuela and captured Maduro, the investment was worth $436,750, which was a return of 1,242 percent.
Maduro was captured on Saturday, January 3.
Lookonchain, a Blockchain analyst, looked into three online wallets that placed Venezuela bets hours before Maduro was taken into captivity. All of the accounts had been created and pre-funded days in advance and had a total combined profit of $630,484.
Eric Feigl-Ding, an epidemiologist and public health researcher, called it out as "insider trading" on X.
"A suspicious new Polymarket account has now profited $150K+ via betting on Maduro ouster – the mystery account scooped up 'YES' positions for ~7 cents a share as the largest single shareholder. It’s now at 99 cents post-invasion. Disgusting," he wrote.
Another X user echoed similar sentiments, sharing, "Perfectly normal, totally unsuspicious prediction market activity: A brand-new Polymarket account quietly loads up $32,537 on 'Maduro out by January 31?' at just 7¢ per share… Less than 24 hours later – after an unannounced U.S. special forces operation extracts Maduro from Caracas overnight – the market resolves Yes. Nothing to see here."
Barron Trump Is Behind the Bet?
There is no evidence to suggest Barron Trump was involved in the trade deals that occurred on Polymarket.
People then suggested Barron, 19, may have been behind the accounts, with one person writing, "It was Baron Trump."
There is absolutely no evidence Barron had anything to do with the online deals that were made; however, the Trump family does have connections to online prediction markets.
Donald Trump Jr. is a strategic advisor to Kalshi, an online prediction market, and has held a paid position there since January 2025.
He also joined Polymarket's advisory board in August 2025 after his venture capital firm made an eight-figure investment.
While Polymarket has yet to comment on the ordeal, Kalshi responded, insisting it prohibits trading by anyone with "material non-public information."
Nicolás Maduro's Court Appearance
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Maduro lashed out during his first court appearance.
After he was captured, Maduro appeared in court earlier this week in New York.
"I am not guilty, I am a decent man. I am still the president of my country," he said in Spanish before a judge. He also claimed he had been "kidnapped" from his home.
In the wake of his capture, Vice President Delcy Rodriguez has assumed power.
In an interview given on Sunday, Trump was asked about who was "in charge" of Venezuela. He said his answer would be "very controversial" and, when pushed on what that meant, he claimed, "We're in charge."
