EXCLUSIVE: Nancy Guthrie Kidnapper Is a 'Complete Amateur' Who Got 'Lucky,' Expert Says — And Claims Cops Know 'Far More' Than the Public
Experts believe sheriff deputies will soon zero in on Nancy Guthrie's kidnapper.
Feb. 16 2026, Published 3:30 p.m. ET
Savannah Guthrie has not given up hope of finding her missing mom, despite the search entering its third week with no suspect.
But RadarOnline.com can reveal experts following the case say it's only a matter of time now before the "sloppy" kidnapper or kidnappers are caught.
The Kidnapper Has Been Lucky So Far
Savannah Guthrie's mom has been missing for more than two weeks now.
Officials have said the search for Nancy Guthrie could go on for years, as they continue to sift through clothing items and gloves that could contain critical DNA.
Toby Braun, founder of American Special Investigative Group, told Radar the kidnapper has been sloppy about leaving clues behind.
"I think this guy is a complete amateur who got lucky so far," Braun – who is an expert in threat intelligence, surveillance, and missing person operations and has successfully found hundreds of people – said.
The Kidnapper is 'Not a Pro'
The kidnapping suspect made several mistakes, according to experts.
Braun analyzed the security video of the suspect taken from Nancy's porch and pointed out several sloppy mistakes.
"The gloves he’s wearing would prohibit him from using ultra-fine motor skills like using the gun or picking a lock. Or anything else for that matter, requiring precise finger movements," he said, adding, "The mask is a huge clue. I can see his skin color and mustache. Plus, the eyes are revealing. Not a pro."
The intelligence expert also said the man caught on camera did not know how to accessorize his wardrobe.
"The backpack…You don’t need all that gear unless you’re operating alone," Braun explained. "The gun/holster is the most amateur setup I've seen. Not a trained person."
Frustrations Mount Toward Pima County Sheriff
Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos has come under fire for his handling of the search.
Braun said the man may be working with an accomplice, but he was the "mastermind" behind the abduction...if you could call him that.
"I’m very confident that he will be caught. Law enforcement will identify him. Either from the ongoing investigation or someone is going to recognize him," he said. "Law enforcement knows a lot more than what is being revealed."
Meanwhile, frustrated followers are coming down hard on Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos, who told The New York Times on February 13 that there's no set timeline for finding Nancy.
"Maybe it's an hour from now," he said. "Maybe it's weeks or months or years from now. But we won't quit. We're going to find Nancy. We're going to find this guy."
Nanos also admitted the investigation has been emotionally draining.
"It's exhausting, these ups and downs," he said. "We will keep moving forward."
Savanna's New Plea for Help
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Savannah has posted another plea for help.
For her part, Savannah certainly isn't giving up hope. The Today show anchor recorded her fourth personal video message, which she posted on Instagram under the caption, "Bring her home."
Savannah said she and her two siblings, Camron and Annie, "have hope" that Nancy is alive and "still believe" she will be returned to them.
She continued: "And I wanted to say to whoever has her or knows where she is that it's never too late, and you're not lost or alone, and it is never too late to do the right thing. We are here, and we believe, and we believe in the essential goodness of every human being, and it's never too late."
