ELECTION MANIA: Donald Trump's Chances of White House Win Slump in Betting Markets As Nail-Biting Election Day Looms
Donald Trump's chances of winning re-election decreases in betting markets.
Nov. 1 2024, Published 5:15 p.m. ET
Donald Trump's chances at winning re-election have taken a nose dive.
RadarOnline.com can reveal Las Vegas betting markets showed the Republican candidate in a major slump days out from election day.
While betting markets still show Trump, 78, winning on November 5, Democratic nominee Kamala Harris has significantly closed the gap in the final days of the presidential race.
Trump's betting market lead in Pennsylvania dropped from 64 percent to 56 percent.
Leading up to election day, national polls have showed Trump and Harris, 60, neck and neck.
With early voting coming to a close, focus has been cast on voter turnout in key battleground states, including Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Arizona and Michigan.
While polls and political pundits continue to go back and forth with predictions on which candidate will become the next POTUS, fluctuations in betting markets showed an interesting shift in Harris' favor.
Polls showed Harris and Trump neck and neck four days out from election day.
According to Kalshi, the largest regulated U.S. exchange, Trump's odds of winning dropped from 64 percent to 56 percent in just 48 hours.
Meanwhile, Polymarket had Harris and Trump tied at 49 percent on October 3.
In the weeks since, Trump pulled ahead in his widest margin of victory since President Joe Biden announced he was suspending his campaign in late July.
At first, the 78-year-old's lead corresponded with early polling data in Pennsylvania; however, some skeptics questioned if his growing lead since then was the work of wealthy players tampering with betting markets.
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Critics claimed Trump's lead in some betting markets was due to player tampering.
Polymarket responded to critics and announced they are investigating tampering claims.
Offshore betting markets have also pushed Trump ahead of Harris and show him winning six out of eight key swing states.
But recent polls still consider the eight states a toss-up, with the margin of victory at two points or less in five states.
According to polling data from Real Clear Politics and Polymarket, betting on Pennsylvania showed Trump winning 56 percent to Harris at 44 percent, while polling data showed Trump winning 48.2 percent to Harris 47.9 percent.
While Trump maintained a lead in swing states in betting markets, national polls showed a 2 percent or less victory margin.
In Georgia, betting markets showed Trump in the lead at 73 percent to Harris' 28 percent, while polls told a much different story with Trump leading with 49.3 percent over Harris with 46.7 percent.
Arizona was another key battleground state with a similar skewed betting market to polling data results. Betting markets favored Trump at 76 percent to Harris at 25 percent. But polling data showed a much more narrow margin of victory for Trump at 49.2 percent to Harris at 46.9 percent.
While betting markets still maintain a Trump victory, they failed to predict his win in 2016.
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