'MAGA Number Is Going Way Down:' Top Democratic Strategist Makes Grim Prediction About Trump's Loyal Fan Base
Donald Trump may find less support even among MAGA supporters after the midterms.
Oct. 27 2026, Published 2:21 p.m. ET
Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville predicted that Republican identification with President Donald Trump’s MAGA movement will “go way down” if the party suffers the expected losses in the November midterms, RadarOnline can report.
Speaking on his Politics War Room podcast with Doug Sosnik, a former White House political director under President Bill Clinton, Carville argued that a poor Election Day showing could weaken the appeal of Trump’s political movement among Republican voters.
Shift Inside the GOP
MAGA numbers are going down, according to a poll.
An NBC News/Decision Desk poll found that 44 percent of Republican voters now identify as MAGA, down from 55 percent last spring.
“I bet you on November 15, if Republicans have the kind of election day that we think they will, the MAGA number is going to go way down,” Carville said.
His prediction followed a discussion of polling that showed a shift in how Republican voters describe their political identities, with fewer identifying as MAGA Republicans and more calling themselves traditional Republicans.
The share calling themselves traditional Republicans rose from 43 percent to 56 percent over the same period.
NBC chief data analyst Steve Kornacki noted that Trump’s most ardent supporters are distancing themselves and no longer form a majority of the Republican electorate.
“You see a very enthusiastic Democratic base, at least some key portions of the Democratic base. And this is what’s going on on the Republican side,” Kornacki said last week.
Carville’s Assessment
MAGA supporters don't all necessarily 'like much of the agenda,' Carville claimed.
Carville argued that some voters who identify with MAGA are drawn to Trump’s willingness to antagonize people they dislike, even if they do not agree with his entire political agenda.
“Because the one thing they like is he can make Doug Sosnik and James Carville and, you know, all those coastal elites—he can p--- off the faculty at Harvard, and they like that,” Carville said. “I expect MAGA numbers are going to go down.”
“Even people who define themselves as MAGA, because they don’t like much of the agenda. They like that he can make people that they hate miserable,” he said.
Political Headwinds
MAGA candidate might lose their campaigns come this midterms, Carville said.
Former White House political director Doug Sosnik pointed to the Texas Senate race as a potential flashpoint, arguing that traditional Republicans, including so-called “Laura Bush Republicans,” may hesitate to support Trump-endorsed candidate Ken Paxton amid his past scandals.
Backlash over the war in Iran, rising gas prices and the delayed release of the Jeffrey Epstein files could further damage Republican prospects, potentially costing the party control of both the House and Senate.
Trump has continued campaign stops in states such as Kansas as Republicans confront an energized Democratic base and signs of softening enthusiasm within their own ranks.
MAGA’s Grip on Republicans Begins to Slip
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MAGA is disillusioned and followers are questioning Trump.
As Radar previously reporte, Trump is facing growing backlash from disillusioned MAGA voters ahead of the November midterm elections, with some former supporters questioning whether they will turn out to vote.
In Michigan, voters have pointed to rising living costs, foreign policy decisions and exhaustion with Trump's political approach.
