EXCLUSIVE: 'Toxicity of Trump' Could Cost Republicans Mitch McConnell's Senate Seat if Hospitalized Senator, 84, Dies and Sparks Special Election
Mitch McConnell's death could pose issues for the GOP.
July 9 2026, Published 3:20 p.m. ET
Mitch McConnell's health crisis could cause a major upset for Republicans – and it's not directly his fault, RadarOnline.com can reveal.
If McConnell, who was hospitalized three weeks ago, dies, a special election will ensue in Kentucky to fill his slot. There are two key frontrunners – Republican candidate Andy Barr and Democratic candidate Charles Booker. While Barr seemed to be the clear favorite, considering Kentucky is notably a red state, it might not be so easy due to President Trump's slipping favorability.
Andy Barr Is the GOP Hopeful to Replace Mitch McConnell
Andy Barr snagged the GOP nomination in the primaries.
After all, Barr and Booker were the party nominees during the 2026 primary. McConnell, at 84-years-old, already agreed not to run for re-election. So, if McConnell dies in office, the election would likely just be expedited, but with the same candidates.
Barr is the likely frontrunner, but Christopher Lee from Foresight Strategic Advisors told Radar that Trump has poisoned Republicans in the eyes of the public. Barr's victory might not be so easy-going, even in a state known for its GOP allegiance.
Lee said, "Then there is what can best be described nationally as the Toxicity of Trump. It is hurting the GOP in states and races where Republicans should face little competition, to say nothing of Trump’s weak numbers in swing states and districts."
Expert Warns Trump's Policies Could Pose a Threat
Kentucky voters are losing faith in Trump.
The expert described the "Toxicity of Trump" as a "soft underbelly for Barr," no different than what Republicans across the country are experiencing.
He added, "Trump’s favorability numbers in Kentucky started out strongly positive for the GOP. Six months later, the picture is very different: the double-digit advantage Republicans enjoyed over the last two years has evaporated, and Trump is now essentially even in the state."
Nationally, Trump's approval rating is down 23 points from when he assumed office, according to The Economist. As of July 7, only 36 percent of Americans approve of his leadership. While Kentucky's ratings haven't taken quite a tumble, they're still down 5 points, unusual for a state that previously viewed him positively.
Trump's Tariffs Took a Toll on Farmers
Trump hasn't yet dealt with the affordability crisis in the country.
Lee identified several areas in which Trump's policies have been negatively received by Kentucky voters, particularly his controversial tariff plans, "which hurt Kentucky farmers," and his "failure to deal with the issue of affordability."
He added, "Job losses in key sectors and broken promises such as 'no new wars' are poisoning the electorate against the GOP."
Mitch McConnell Remains Hospitalized
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McConnell has now had a three week stay in the hospital.
McConnell was hospitalized on June 14 and, as of this writing, remains in medical care. While his staff has not yet revealed what exactly landed him in the hospital, audio of first responders suggested it was "cardiac arrest."
In their most recent update on McConnell's condition, his team said, "Senator McConnell appreciates the outpouring of support he's receiving while he continues his recovery in the hospital. He continues to improve, and is working closely with his staff on Kentucky and Senate matters while the Senate is out of session."
Plus, his fellow Republicans are vouching for McConnell's health.
Scott Jennings, a CNN commentator and longtime McConnell adviser, wrote online, "We talked for just shy of 20 minutes … about IRAN, UKRAINE, the unfolding situation in MAINE, my visit to the TR Presidential Library, and even a little bit of Senate history. I told him we want to see him back at work as soon as possible."
