Leaked Memo: Trump Pollsters Claim Verdict Already ‘Baked Into the Cake’ — as They Move to Ease Rising GOP Tensions
A leaked memo issued by Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign earlier this week indicated that his team was not concerned about the consequences a guilty verdict would have.
May 31 2024, Published 10:15 a.m. ET
A leaked memo issued by Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign earlier this week indicated that his team was not concerned about the consequences a guilty verdict would have on the ex-president’s ongoing bid for the White House, RadarOnline.com can report.
In a surprising development to come after the embattled ex-president was found guilty and convicted on 34 criminal charges by a New York jury on Thursday, a confidential memorandum issued by Trump’s campaign team was leaked.
The confidential memo, which was dated Wednesday, May 29, cited polling data that suggested a guilty Trump verdict was already “baked into the cake” for most voters.
The confidential memo, which was dated Wednesday, May 29, cited polling data that suggested a guilty Trump verdict was already “baked into the cake” for most voters as they prepare to vote in the general election on November 5.
The memo also indicated that a guilty verdict would “not significantly change” Trump’s current lead over President Joe Biden and that an acquittal would not “increase his lead.”
“As the trial against President Trump in New York is entering its final phase, the media is unsurprisingly treating the jury’s decision as if it will make or break President Trump’s election ambitions,” the memo, which was obtained by RadarOnline.com on Friday morning, read.
“However, our polling data shows otherwise,” the memo continued. “The impact of the New York trial, what little there has been, is already ‘baked into the cake’ and voters have by-and-large already formed their opinions on the trial and President Trump’s actions.”
The memo also indicated that a guilty verdict would “not significantly change” Trump’s current lead over President Joe Biden.
“Based on weeks of data, we have found that a conviction will not significantly change the advantage President Trump currently enjoys over Biden in our target states, nor will an acquittal increase his lead.”
The memo cited polling data from seven key battleground states that included Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
According to the Trump campaign’s data, the ex-president’s “lead fell by two net points among those asked how they would vote if he was convicted” and his lead “fell by two net points among those asked how they would vote if he was convicted.”
The Trump campaign dubbed such changes “statistically insignificant” to the ex-president’s chances of retaking the White House later this year.
“Based on weeks of data, we have found that a conviction will not significantly change the advantage President Trump currently enjoys over Biden in our target states, nor will an acquittal increase his lead.”
“When we asked voters how they would vote given a conviction or an acquittal, the changes were insignificant,” Wednesday’s memo read.
“President Trump’s lead fell by two net points among those asked how they would vote if he was convicted,” it continued. “His lead increased by one net point among those asked how they would vote if he was not convicted.”
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“Both of these shifts are statistically insignificant, meaning that by mathematical standards, no real change in the race.”
Meanwhile, Wednesday’s memo was also issued in an apparent effort to ease rising tensions within the GOP regarding Trump’s legal issues – especially after the ex-president was found guilty and convicted of 34 criminal charges on Thursday.
“Both of these shifts are statistically insignificant, meaning that by mathematical standards, no real change in the race.”
“Voters in our key target states have already made up their minds on this trial,” Trump’s campaign team insisted. “Most voters, especially our supporters, believe the case is politically motivated and a conviction would be the result of a biased show trial.”
“Biden’s voters will believe President Trump is guilty no matter what,” the memo concluded. “And those in the middle are largely unconcerned and their votes aren’t going to hinge on the results of the trial.”
While several GOP politicians agreed with the argument presented within the Trump campaign’s memo, other Republican lawmakers were not so quick to climb aboard.
One GOP senator’s aide said that they were “skeptical” Trump’s conviction would help the ex-president’s campaign – particularly as the campaign works to persuade swing voters to vote for Trump over Biden.
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Some GOP insiders were "skeptical" about the consequences a guilty Trump verdict would have on the ex-president's campaign.
“I’m skeptical of the ‘a felony conviction helps Trump’ narrative,” the GOP insider said. “But it will help with the base obviously, just like the raid did. Unclear how it will affect swing voters.”
“People just think it's all bulls---,” another senior aide for a GOP congressman explained. “But folks at the strategic level will listen to polling.”
“To expand, I think Trump has a million warts,” that source continued. “They're baked in. Jan 6th was 100X this. No one needs another character flaw to oppose him. But when it comes to who'll make you better off, this changes none of that.”
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