The Race for 2028: JD Vance Leads Nikki Haley in New Hampshire — Leaving TV Anchors Baffled Over The 'Historic' Results
JD Vance has a big lead over his possible Republican presidential candidates.
Dec. 30 2025, Updated 11:54 a.m. ET
JD Vance hasn't made his 2028 intentions known yet, but he already is the favorite for the Republican presidential nomination, RadarOnline.com can report.
And it's not even close.
It's Never Too Early To Start Looking Ahead
Vance is expected to run in 2028 after Donald Trump leaves office.
Although the next election is still three years away, it's never too early for possible candidates to start jockeying for position. But right now, the race on the GOP side looks to be Vice President Vance... and everyone else.
According to polling from prediction marketplace Kalshi, Vance currently has a 48% chance of being the nominee. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is a distant second, with a 12% chance. No other Republican has a greater than 5% chance of winning the nomination.
Or, as Harry Enten, host of CNN's Margins of Error podcast put it: "JD Vance is like Mario Andretti & the rest of the GOP is going around in go karts when it comes to 2028."
Enten added: "JD Vance is pulling off something historic at this time, and that is the key reason why, at this point, he is the far and away favorite for the Republican nomination. He’s just way out ahead of the pack."
Vance and Everyone Else
The vice president has yet to announce any plans to run.
The numbers for Vance are even stronger when it comes to the New Hampshire primary – the unofficial kickoff of the next election contest.
According to a University of New Hampshire poll, Vance has a 51% chance of winning the state. Former presidential candidate Nikki Haley is stuck in his shadow with just a 9% chance.
"Vance is the clear favorite to win the 2028 GOP nom," Enten tweeted. "He's the 1st ever non-sitting pres to get 50%+ in early New Hamp primary polls. Has a 40+ pt lead over the competition."
Vance Plans a Sit-Down with Trump
The next closest candidates are Nikki Haley and Marco Rubio.
While he's keeping any definitive plans close to his chest, Vance did recently tell Fox News he's going to sit down with his boss, President Trump, once the 2026 midterm elections are over to start mapping out their vision of how to continue the MAGA movement in 2028 and beyond.
When Sean Hannity asked Vance about his plans for running for president, the former Ohio senator explained, "I would say that I’ve thought about what that moment might look like after the midterm elections, sure."
"But I also, whenever I think about that, try to put it out of my head and remind myself the American people elected me to do a job right now, and my job is to do it," referring to his role as veep.
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Midterm Mania Still to Come
Vance says he is focusing for now on the midterm elections.
Vance stressed that he's focused on getting the Republican Party over the finish line in the 2026 midterms to ensure Democrats don't pick up congressional seats and regain control in an effort to undo Trump's agenda.
"I really want us to win the midterms, because if the Democrats get in power, they’re going to try to (mess) up a lot of the great things the president of the United States has done over the past 10 months," Vance revealed. "So we're gonna win the midterms, we're gonna do everything we can to win the midterms."
"After that, I’m going to sit down with the president of the United States and talk to him about it," he pledged about Trump. "If we do a good job, the politics will take care of itself. If we do a terrible job, the politics will take care of itself in the other direction, so I'm just going to focus on the job that I have."
