Packers vs. Lions Thanksgiving Prediction: Data Insights and Best Bets for NFL Week 12
Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is introduced before the first half of an NFL football game against the Chicago Bears, Sunday, Nov. 19, 2023, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
Nov. 23 2023, Published 10:00 a.m. ET
The Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions will meet in an NFL Week 12 matchup at Ford Field on Thanksgiving Day. The game will start at 12:30 p.m. EST.
Get the inside scoop with this Packers vs. Lions betting preview, which contains the latest betting odds and insider tips you need to make the most of this game.
According to the latest odds from Bet365, the Lions are the favored team against the Packers on Thursday. The over/under is set at 47 for total points scored.
Packers vs. Lions 2023 Preview
When and Where
- Teams: Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions
- Date: Thursday, November 23, 2023
- Time: 12:30 p.m. EST
- Venue: Ford Field
Odds and Lines
- Point spread: Packers +7.5 (-102), Lions -7.5 (-120)
- Moneyline: Packers +320, Lions -390
- Total: Over/Under 47 (-110/-110)
Please note that the odds and lines provided in this article are the best available at the time of publishing but are subject to change.
Packers vs. Lions Prediction
Radar Sports has partnered with <a href="https://www.dimers.com" target="_blank">Dimers.com</a> to run a whopping 10,000 simulations of the Packers vs. Lions matchup using advanced machine learning to predict the most likely scenarios for your benefit.
Let's get to the point – who's going to win? According to Dimers' high-tech computer model, the Lions have a 77% chance of winning against the Packers at Ford Field.
Furthermore, the model predicts that the Lions (-7.5) have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 47 points has a 52% chance of going over.
Remember, the predictions and probabilities in this article are correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
Best Bet for Packers vs. Lions
Our free computer pick for the Packers vs. Lions game on Thursday is to bet on the Packers moneyline (+320).
While the Lions are more likely to win the game, according to Dimers' predictive modeling, betting the Packers moneyline is recommended due to the edge found when comparing their probabilities to the best available odds.
All of the content in this article is based on detailed simulations and hundreds of different inputs to help you make more informed decisions.
Packers-Lions Week 12 Player Props
A great option to wager on Green Bay vs. Detroit without necessarily betting on the game's outcome is through prop bets.
The most likely first and anytime touchdown scorers for the Packers and Lions are listed below.
According to our model, Detroit's David Montgomery has the best chance of scoring the first touchdown in Packers vs. Lions.
Montgomery has an 11.7% chance of scoring the opening TD on Thursday. The Lions RB has a 48.6% probability of reaching the end zone at any point during the game.
First Touchdown Scorer Probabilities
Green Bay Packers
- AJ Dillon: 8.6% probability
- Jayden Reed: 8.6% probability
- Romeo Doubs: 6.4% probability
- Christian Watson: 5.9% probability
- Jordan Love: 3.8% probability
Detroit Lions
- David Montgomery: 11.7% probability
- Jahmyr Gibbs: 10.9% probability
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 9.9% probability
- Jameson Williams: 7.1% probability
- Sam LaPorta: 5.3% probability
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Probabilities
Green Bay Packers
- AJ Dillon: 39.6% probability
- Jayden Reed: 39.4% probability
- Romeo Doubs: 30.2% probability
- Christian Watson: 28.1% probability
- Jordan Love: 19.7% probability
Detroit Lions
- David Montgomery: 48.6% probability
- Jahmyr Gibbs: 46.5% probability
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 42.8% probability
- Jameson Williams: 32.9% probability
- Sam LaPorta: 25.9% probability
Packers vs. Lions Score Prediction
Radar Sports' predicted final score for Green Bay vs. Detroit at Ford Field has the Lions winning 27-19.
This prediction is based on both teams' average score after 10,000 game simulations.
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About the Author
Mac Douglass is the Senior Sports Betting Editor at Cipher Sports Technology Group. In addition to covering the sports betting industry for several news sites across the US, Mac provides sports analysis and betting tips for Dimers and tennis commentary for Stats Insider.