Commanders vs. Cowboys Thanksgiving Prediction: Data Insights and Best Bets for NFL Week 12
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb runs against Carolina Panthers during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Nov. 19, 2023, in Charlotte, N.C. (AP Photo/Rusty Jones)
Nov. 23 2023, Published 8:30 a.m. ET
The Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys are set to meet in an NFL Week 12 matchup at AT&T Stadium on Thanksgiving Day. The game will start at 4:30 p.m. EST.
Get the inside scoop with this Commanders vs. Cowboys betting guide, which features the latest betting odds and our best bet of the game.
According to the latest odds from Bet365, the Cowboys are favored to win against the Commanders on Thursday. The over/under is set at 48.5 for total points scored.
Commanders vs. Cowboys 2023 Preview
Key Information
- Teams: Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys
- Date: Thursday, November 23, 2023
- Time: 4:30 p.m. EST
- Venue: AT&T Stadium
Odds and Lines
- Point spread: Commanders +13.5 (-110), Cowboys -13.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Commanders +600, Cowboys -700
- Total: Over/Under 48.5 (-110/-110)
Please note that the odds and lines provided in this article are the best available at the time of publishing but are subject to change.
Commanders vs. Cowboys Prediction
Radar Sports has partnered with <a href="https://www.dimers.com" target="_blank">Dimers.com</a> to run a whopping 10,000 simulations of the Commanders vs. Cowboys matchup using trusted data and analytics to predict the most likely outcomes for your benefit.
Let's cut to the chase – who's going to win? According to Dimers' high-tech computer model, the Cowboys have an 86% chance of winning against the Commanders at AT&T Stadium.
The model also predicts that the Commanders (+13.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 48.5 points has a 51% chance of going over.
Keep in mind that the predictions and probabilities in this article are correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
Best Bet for Commanders vs. Cowboys
Our free computer pick for the Commanders vs. Cowboys game on Thursday is to bet on the Commanders +13.5 (-110).
All of the content in this article is based on detailed predictive analytics and hundreds of different inputs to help you make more informed decisions.
Commanders-Cowboys Week 12 Player Props
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An exciting option to wager on Washington vs. Dallas without necessarily betting on the game's outcome is through player props.
The most likely first and anytime touchdown scorers for the Commanders and Cowboys can be seen below.
According to our model, Dallas' Tony Pollard has the best chance of scoring the first touchdown in Commanders vs. Cowboys.
Pollard has a 15.6% chance of scoring the opening TD on Thursday. The Cowboys RB has a 60.2% probability of scoring an anytime touchdown.
First Touchdown Scorer Probabilities
Washington Commanders
- Brian Robinson: 6.9% probability
- Terry McLaurin: 5.6% probability
- Jahan Dotson: 5.1% probability
- Antonio Gibson: 4.5% probability
- Logan Thomas: 4.0% probability
Dallas Cowboys
- Tony Pollard: 15.6% probability
- CeeDee Lamb: 13.9% probability
- Brandin Cooks: 8.3% probability
- Jake Ferguson: 8.0% probability
- Dak Prescott: 5.4% probability
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Probabilities
Washington Commanders
- Brian Robinson: 34.0% probability
- Terry McLaurin: 29.1% probability
- Jahan Dotson: 25.4% probability
- Antonio Gibson: 23.8% probability
- Logan Thomas: 21.5% probability
Dallas Cowboys
- Tony Pollard: 60.2% probability
- CeeDee Lamb: 57.1% probability
- Brandin Cooks: 38.4% probability
- Jake Ferguson: 37.0% probability
- Dak Prescott: 26.1% probability
Commanders vs. Cowboys Score Prediction
Radar Sports' crystal ball for Washington vs. Dallas at AT&T Stadium has the Cowboys winning 30-18.
This prediction is based on both teams' average score after 10,000 game simulations.
The Final Word on Commanders vs. Cowboys
Thursday's NFL Week 12 game between the Commanders and Cowboys on Thursday is scheduled to start at 4:30 p.m. EST.
If you liked this Commanders vs. Cowboys preview, you're going to love our other offerings!
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All the predictions and probabilities on this page are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of Thursday's Commanders vs. Cowboys game and are correct at the time of publishing to help you make better decisions when placing an online bet.
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About the Author
Mac Douglass is the Senior Sports Betting Editor at Cipher Sports Technology Group. In addition to covering the sports betting industry for several news sites across the US, Mac provides sports analysis and betting tips for Dimers and tennis commentary for Stats Insider.