Predicting 2024 Oscars Winners Based on the SAG Awards Results
March 3 2024, Published 9:18 a.m. ET
Awards shows are very similar, but they don’t always have the same winners, losers, or even nominees. That said, the SAG Awards and Oscars are two ceremonies that are usually on the same wavelength when it comes to major awards.
It is not uncommon to see the same winners in nearly identical categories at these two iconic events. We have seen the same nominees win Best Picture, Best Actress, and other similar titles.
By looking at the 2024 SAG Awards results, we can get a good idea for how the Oscars ceremony will go.
Oppenheimer to Win Best Picture
Just by looking at the 2024 Oscars odds, we can see that Oppenheimer is going to be awfully busy. The recent SAG Awards ceremony all but confirms that as well. Christopher Nolan’s film dominated at the event, taking home numerous major awards.
Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr. won their respective awards for Outstanding Performances for Male lead and supporting roles. Oppenheimer also won Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture.
Everything Everywhere All at Once won the most awards at the 2023 SAG Awards (5), and eventually won seven awards at the Oscars, including Best Picture. The year prior, CODA won this major award at the SAG Awards and Oscars. There is a good chance that Oppenheimer does the exact same thing in 2024.
Da'Vine Joy Randolph to Win Best Supporting Actress
One award that Oppenheimer did not take home at the 2024 SAG Awards is Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role. Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) won this award over Emily Blunt, which means there is a very high chance she also wins at the Oscars.
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Not only did Jamie Lee Curtis win at the 2023 SAG Awards and Oscars, but Ariana DeBose won both the year prior. Before that, Yuh-jung Youn won at both events for her role as Soon-ja in Minari.
History indicates that Da'Vine Joy Randolph will win Best Supporting Actress at the 2024 Oscars, and deservingly so.
Lily Gladstone to Win Best Actress
Lily Gladstone’s chances of winning Best Actress were already high, even before we knew about Margot Robbie’s Oscar snub. In addition to a superb performance in Killers of the Flower Moon, Gladstone also has SAG history on her side.
The SAG Awards and Oscars have had the same winner for Best Actress and Outstanding Performance by a Leading Actress for each of the last two years. Michelle Yeoh won at both events in 2022, while Jessica Chastain won both in 2021.
Now that Lily Gladstone has won at the 2024 SAG Awards, there is little reason to believe she won’t win at the Oscars, despite facing tough competition in Emma Stone and others.
We tend to see a few surprise winners at the Oscars each year, but they typically have the same winners as the SAG Awards. Do not be surprised when you see the cast of Oppenheimer, Da'Vine Joy Randolph, and Lily Gladstone be announced as the winners for their respective awards.
Courtesy to Anthony Haage.