Fall of Bab Al-Mandab Exposes Shifting Power Dynamics and War Management Dilemma

Yemen - The rapid military advance of the Ansar Allah (Houthi) group on Yemen’s western coast has redrawn the country's conflict map, placing the Bab al-Mandab strait—one of the world's most critical maritime corridors—at the centre of a regional confrontation whose repercussions extend far beyond Yemen's borders.

Following years of relative stalemate after the UN-brokered truce in April 2022, the war has resurfaced in a new form. The confrontation between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia has expanded alongside profound military and political shifts within Yemen’s anti-Houthi bloc.

Reuters reports that this rapid coastal advance has enabled the Iran-aligned group to threaten control over the Bab al-Mandab strait. With the Strait of Hormuz simultaneously experiencing disruptions linked to the conflict with Iran, two of the world's most vital energy and trade arteries are now under concurrent pressure. These developments are highly significant; Bab al-Mandab connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, forming a crucial segment of the shortest maritime route linking Europe to Asia via the Suez Canal.

From Truce to Confrontation

The UN-brokered truce of 2022 largely halted major offensive operations within Yemen and across the Saudi border, ushering in a period of military calm that effectively lasted for years, despite the absence of a final political settlement.

However, this balance began to collapse this year, culminating in direct military escalation. Last Tuesday, the Houthis launched missile and drone attacks targeting cities and facilities in southern Saudi Arabia, leaving 73 people injured according to Saudi authorities. Reuters noted that the group claimed a large-scale operation inside Saudi territory, targeting an airbase in Khamis Mushait and energy-related infrastructure in Abha, Najran, and Jizan. Satellite imagery verified by the agency showed smoke rising near the Saudi East-West crude oil pipeline, a strategic route designed to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

Bab Al-Mandab

The most significant development, however, occurred inside Yemen. During a rapid offensive on the western coast, Houthi forces seized strategic areas and positions, including Mokha, Dhubab, and Mayun (Perim) Island, located at the heart of the Bab al-Mandab strait.

A Yemeni official told Reuters that Houthi fighters arrived on Mayun Island by boat following the withdrawal of government forces. Government sources confirmed that the group has expanded its control over the western coast and areas surrounding the strait. The Financial Times described the event as a swift offensive resulting in Houthi control over key Red Sea islands and outposts, marking a major strategic setback for Saudi-backed Yemeni forces and a geopolitical victory for Iran.

The Wall Street Journal noted that capturing Mayun and Dhubab has granted the Houthis increasing de facto control over one of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints. According to the Associated Press, these developments raise concerns far beyond Yemen, particularly as Red Sea shipping disruptions in recent years have already forced a significant portion of maritime traffic onto longer, more expensive routes.

Gains Built Over Years

The significance of these events extends beyond geography. The areas currently falling to the Houthis were not historically held by the Yemeni government; rather, they were captured from the group during a protracted series of military operations led and backed by the United Arab Emirates, alongside local Yemeni forces.

Since the onset of the West Coast operations, UAE forces participated directly in planning, support, training, and combat alongside the Giants Brigades, the Southern Resistance, the Tihama Resistance, and other anti-Houthi factions. In 2018, Reuters described southern forces as the bulk of the UAE-led ground coalition advancing toward Hodeidah, noting that around 20,000 Southern Resistance fighters were deployed on that front. The offensive that year reached Hodeidah airport and the city's outskirts in one of the largest military operations the Houthis had faced since the war began. These gains were the culmination of years of fighting, stretching from Bab al-Mandab and Mokha northwards along the coast to the edges of Hodeidah.

The Emirati Vacuum

Although the UAE has scaled back its direct military presence in Yemen since 2019—maintaining influence through the local forces it trained and supported—political and military developments early this year resulted in the complete departure of its remaining military presence amid an escalating dispute with the Saudi-aligned Yemeni government.

Reuters reported in January that the UAE military withdrawal was completed late last year, shortly before Yemeni authorities also requested the withdrawal of Emirati companies operating in the country.

These events echo the initial Emirati troop drawdown in 2019, when Saudi Arabia was forced to dispatch forces and officers to take over positions previously managed by the UAE in Mokha, Khokha, and Mayun Island. An Emirati official stated at the time that Abu Dhabi had trained around 90,000 Yemeni fighters to build local forces capable of holding territory captured from the Houthis.

The current situation raises a difficult question: what happened to this security apparatus following the recent political shifts? Within months, Saudi Arabia and Yemeni government forces proved unable to build an alternative military structure capable of filling the vacuum and maintaining the previous balance of power on the West Coast. This vacuum is not merely about troop numbers, but involves an entire system of command, control, supply, training, intelligence, and support that previously managed a frontline stretching hundreds of kilometers along one of the world's most sensitive coastlines.

A Saudi Dilemma

The latest developments present Saudi Arabia with one of its most severe crises since its military intervention in Yemen in 2015. After more than a decade of war, Riyadh remains the sole regional power dominating Yemen and its internationally recognized government. Yet, it now faces a Houthi advance in territories where the initial capture was once considered one of the coalition's crowning military achievements.

The Financial Times highlighted that the Saudi-led coalition, weakened by internal divisions and the UAE's exit, has struggled to halt the latest Houthi offensive. France's Le Monde described the situation as one of the most dangerous military crises Riyadh has faced in a decade, noting that the Houthi advance coincides with mounting pressure on Saudi oil export routes.

Requesting US Assistance

Axios revealed that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called US President Donald Trump twice on Thursday as the military situation deteriorated on the Yemeni coast. According to US officials who spoke to the outlet, the Crown Prince used the second call to ask Trump to authorize US strikes against the Houthis; however, the US President refused to enter a new direct military confrontation.

Reuters later confirmed that Saudi Arabia requested American military support. Washington agreed to provide intelligence and target data rather than direct operational involvement. A senior US official told Axios that the United States is focused on protecting its core security interests—primarily freedom of navigation in the Red Sea—while empowering regional partners to take the lead in addressing the region's security challenges.

The US stance reveals a notable shift, as Riyadh had informed Washington just weeks prior that it could handle the Houthis independently, before the military deterioration prompted escalated requests for American support.

Testing the "Mecca Agreement"

The Saudi dilemma arrives merely weeks after Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the "Mecca Joint Defence Agreement" on August 7. The pact stipulates that an armed attack on one of the three nations is considered an attack on all. However, the agreement's first political test has exposed the limits of transitioning from theoretical commitments to active military engagement.

When asked about the possibility of Pakistani military intervention in response to the Houthi attacks, Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesperson Sajjad Haider Khan stated that "nothing of the sort is currently under discussion," adding that his country will act in accordance with the agreement when the time comes. Turkey, for its part, emphasized following the signing that the pact is inherently defensive and does not designate any specific country as a common enemy.

Where Did the Flaw Occur?

Yemeni researcher Yaqoub al-Sufyani argues that "most of the major battlefield breakthroughs achieved against the Houthis were linked to the presence of effective local forces on the ground, which the UAE played a direct and pivotal role in building, supporting, and backing, both in the south and on the West Coast."

Al-Sufyani notes that Riyadh allowed ideological and political Yemeni factions hostile to the Southern Transitional Council to gradually shift the compass away from the conflict with the Houthis and towards internal struggles within the anti-Houthi camp. The result, he adds, was the loss of a regional ally with direct operational experience in Yemen, alongside the weakening of local forces that had proven their combat capabilities on the ground.

Yemeni political analyst and journalist Salah bin Laghbar agrees that the Emirati role was decisive in building the forces that secured the coastal gains, pointing to the years of support, training, and armament received by the Giants Brigades and southern forces. In a post on X, he asserted that the UAE's absence "did not merely leave a vacuum in military support but exposed the difference between an administration that manufactured victory and an administration that does not even know how to prevent defeat," referencing the strategic gap between the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Failure in Managing the File

Yemeni media figure Noura al-Jarwi argues that current developments should not be viewed as isolated Houthi advances, but rather within a broader regional context. She stated that the Houthis, backed by Iran, now threaten the West Coast and Bab al-Mandab at a time when the Strait of Hormuz is also under Iranian pressure, granting Tehran growing influence over two vital maritime corridors. Al-Jarwi called on Saudi Arabia to review its Yemen policy, arguing that years of managing the conflict have failed to build an independent Yemeni authority capable of navigating war and peace, or protecting its own territories.

This criticism carries additional weight considering Reuters reports citing Yemeni and regional sources regarding Iran's role in the latest offensive. The agency reported that Iranian weapons, funding, and military advice aided the Houthis in their coastal operation, and that Revolutionary Guard officers provided support and guidance to the group. Tehran continues to deny direct involvement in managing Houthi operations.

A New Equation

Based on current developments, the loss of the West Coast does not appear to be just another shift in the lines of control within a war that has dragged on for over a decade. The geography that the anti-Houthi coalition spent years capturing through extensive military operations, training, and logistical support has undergone a radical shift in the balance of power in a remarkably short period.

The outcome resonates far beyond Yemen: Iran and its Houthi allies now hold a new leverage point near Bab al-Mandab at the exact moment the world faces instability in the Strait of Hormuz. Consequently, the question raised by these developments is no longer simply how the Houthis advanced, but rather how a military apparatus built over years collapsed so swiftly, and why the regional power that assumed control after the UAE's withdrawal failed to establish a viable alternative capable of safeguarding one of the coalition's most critical strategic victories since the war began.