DAY OF RECKONING Barack, John

Nick Curran: Can you feel the Super Tuesday excitement???
Ray Gustini: Palpable
NC: You're not crying or anything?
RG: No, I'm okay, I took a Xanax earlier, so I should be good for at least the first half of this conversation before the sobbing starts up again.
NC: So you're plugged into D circles right? What're you hearing? People getting really, really inspired by Obama?
RG: Very much so: We've discussed this before, but Democrats-of-a-certain-age simply cannot control themselves whenever they see a candidate or a platform that feels vaguely Kennedy-esque. And Obama has that, which is what has inspired a lot of these seasoned operatives to join up, and caught the imagination of baby boomer pols like Kerry, Dorgan, McCaskill, etc.
NC: Not being an Obama person, I find it all very fascinating. When I've seen him give speeches, people just get starry-eyed.
NC: Now even DeNiro's caught up in this swoon-fest?? Christ almighty.
RG: A lot of people have worked hard in the past week to get others to see Obama's support in D.C. circles as a referendum on the Clintons, but I think it's really more primal than that: He's captured the imagination of these people.
RG: De Niro, really?
NC: Yep.
RG: DeNiro probably just wants to hang out around Mrs. Obama. Heyo!

NC: Barack and all this "fundamentally change Washington" rhetoric ... ain't gonna happen. Might as well promise to stop a speeding locomotive with an empty beer can.
NC: If he gets elected, sooner or later that's going to bite him in the ass.
NC: Washington is where hope goes to die. Which would be a good slogan for a campaign.
RG: This is true. But what Obama has that other reformers (namely Dean) never had is a strong organization that could put him over the top.
NC: He does have quite an operation. I just generally don't bet against the establishment. And Clinton is still the establishment—or has the lionshare of it.
NC: I'm also entertained by seeing the establishments for both parties under attack. McCain! I mean, they HATE McCain.
RG: Yes, very much so. And at a certain point, a lot of these people who have crossed over from the Clintons to Obama are working so hard because they are terrified of what will happen if Hillary really does pull it out. It'll be like after the Lufthansa heist in Goodfellas.
RG: The upcoming John McCain campaign is going to be a lot of fun. I mean, did you see the Post RG: "The thought of him being president sends a cold chill down my spine.... He is erratic. He is hotheaded. He loses his temper and he worries me."—Sen. Thad Cochran
NC: Lotta stories like that. Going off like Bobby DeNiro stomping Billy Batts, real greaseball shit.
RG: Go home and get your fucking shinebox, John Cornyn
RG: So you think it's a done deal on your side?
NC: I wouldn't venture a guess. But it sounds like California could be the final battlefield. It would be an amazing thing for McCain. Romney's done everything right to get the establishment on his side. Endorsements. Importing Bush campaign infrastructure/staff. And most important, willingness to spend all that cash. And McCain has done so many things wrong. So many. And not by accident. Just for the hell of it, just to have a scrap sometimes.
RG: See, this campaign season has been fraught with the media jumping all over what I like to call "The Chris Matthews Wisdom"—basically just jumping the gun and predicting cataclysmic things that never materialize (Giuliani in Florida, the whole Fred Thompson experiment, Obama momentum after Iowa). And I think we're reaching that point with McCain .
NC: Very possible.
RG: You said earlier not to doubt the establishment: I just think Romney has one last surge in him.
NC: Never smart to bet against the establishment or boatloads of money.
RG: When they write the book on the Romney campaign, the failure to take Iowa and break Huckabee's back will be seen as his undoing. He could have locked up social conservatives.
NC: He tried so hard, though.
RG: Romney is not trailing by a lot in these key states tomorrow, but Huckabee is right there, too, taking valuable votes away in winner-take-all primaries.
NC: I wonder if he just stares at the ceiling at night thinking, $40 million, I just blew through $40 million. Tagg's gonna be so pissed at me! And so will my other robot sons.
NC: Oh yeah, it's just a shit deal for Romney.
NC: Of course he'll have burned through even more than $40 mill before this is over.
RG: The frustration, just on a personal level, has to be enormous: we see him getting flustered in the debates, but at a certain point, how could you not be? Your entire life has been leading up to this moment, you've done everything right, but at a gut level, people like the smartass fighter pilot and the redneck minister are better than you.
NC: He's gotta be like, I risked my life in France as a Mormon missionary and this is the thanks I get??? Fuck you America! That's something I would like to see, frankly. From somebody. Anybody. Huckabee would probably say it in a way that people find folksy and mildly amusing.
RG: Just burning through that last $20 mil by buying up a half-hour of network time on every major network.
RG: Back to the issue of the establishment re: McCain. What can we expect?
NC: Shit sandwiches for everyone!
RG: Except Lindsey Graham
NC: They're like, uh, John, remember all that shit I said about you being a huge asshole and traitor? Totally didn't mean it.
RG: At which point McCain will make the jackoff gesture, grab himself, and exit the room giggling.
NC: And that time you told me to go fuck myself and said I was basically a corrupt person just because I didn't support campaign finance reform (which was so effective by the way—great job!)? No offense taken. We're cool, right bro?!
RG: I'm so excited.
NC: Our lives will change. Everyone's life will change.
NC: Change.
NC: Barack Obama has mentioned change a lot in case you didn't notice.
NC: I like when he tries to disarm the cynics in his speeches. He's like "Some people say we can't change Washington ... some will tell you blah blah." And I'm like, he's talking about ME! And then I get very, very inspired and announce my endorsement of Obama.
RG: Ugh, can I just say how difficult it is to listen to him speak for more than 5 minutes at a time? How has nobody realized this: he's like your most boring college professor.
RG: It was much more fun coming from Edwards
NC: That ol dawg.
RG: I'm going to miss Edwards.
NC: Now there's a guy I already forgot about.
RG: I loved him in those debates with Hillary and Obama. You know the ones I'm talking about? Where Hillary was all angry and tight, and Obama looked like a sad, confused eight-year-old dressed up for his class picture
NC: I'm curious about what he's going to do next. We ran an item last week on that very idea.
RG: Well, he spent the last month of the campaign apparently under the impression he was running for head spot at the Department of Labor under President Obama.
NC: Why these guys would want cabinet jobs is beyond me.
NC: They are javelin catchers!
NC: You get your own driver and get your ass kissed. But often the power is mostly imaginary.
RG: Exactly! Have you seen the photos of John Edwards' house in Chapel Hill?! Why would you leave that to rent some place in Cleveland Park?
NC: Right. Maybe Edwards should just take a deep breath and realize, hey, iI've done it all. I've made millions. I've been a senator. I ran for president twice. It's coke-n-hooker time!!
NC: Maybe that's what Bush will do next year as well....
RG: I've heard whispers HRC will consider him for VP, Obama may look at him for AG.
NC: So are you getting lots of phone calls, door knocks?
NC: Or just seeing a lot of political commercials?
RG: I'm actually not in a state that will be voting tomorrow, so I've been able to avoid most of that.
RG: Actually, though, a lot of people sort of wandering around with buttons on
NC: Nice. Chum! People love campaign chum.
NC: The person who controls the chum is the most important person on a campaign, you know.
NC: T-shirts, stickers, signs. People really love that crap I've learned. When I worked for Bush re-elect, the most prized piece of chum was a little pendant. Looked like a little sheriff's star. Only the most dedicated volunteers got them. And hacks like me.
NC: And I would just lord it over everyone who didn't have one. Because I knew that it truly reflected on my value as a person.
RG: My favorite piece I have right now is a Firefighters For Dodd shirt somebody brought me back from Iowa. It's great on so many levels.
RG: Right see, and this is what Obama's flock can never understand
RG: that these things MATTER
NC: I'm still amazed at the effect he has on people.
NC: And I certainly don't begrudge people for having some enthusiasm for somebody
RG: Like what we have for chum: it's nice to believe in something
NC: Yeah! I can get behind that
Curran: Change. And cool bumper stickers plz.
RG: On a semi-serious note, I feel Republicans should be making a bigger deal about the half-assed, needlessly complicated way that Democrats go about awarding delegates
NC: Quite interesting, yeah.
NC: All the nerds who understand delegate math are so popular right now.
RG: Which is why even if the Chris Matthews Wisdom is correct and Obama is riding a wave of momentum, he won't sew up the nomination right now
RG: I tried that this morning...too tough
NC: Mark Penn says they are now planning to go up to the convention. And that Obama loves cocaine.
RG: As an outsider, what's your take on the Obama/Clinton throwdown of the last month?
NC: Been interesting to watch. When they start tangling like that, you know their internal polls are telling them something
RG: Mark Penn should just change his name to Rasputin and get it over with. I feel like I get fed the 'Mark Penn is getting fired' story every week
NC: Yeah, didn't everyone have that teed up for the day after her humiliating loss in New Hampshire?
NC: Which turned out to be a huge victory
RG: I've been very interested: since '04, there was a lot of talk about skins getting thicker and the party needing to get more proactive in terms of hitting back against criticism, in light of the Kerry debacle
NC: It reminds you of what a disgusting business politics can be really.
RG: And yet, for all that talk, a lot of people in the party freeze up when somebody hits them. Witness the kvetching over Bill Clinton's comments about Obama.
RG: You just want to go up to some of these people and inquire if they know how political campaigns work: the other guy isn't going to say nice things about you.
NC: Right. It's quite nasty. The approach is guided by the idea basically that the best thing you can do is drive up your opponent's negatives. That's the best thing you can do.
NC: Usually it's political consultants telling you that. And then they'll be happy to tell you how exactly to do it. For a modest fee.
NC: Some of these guys make ridiculous amounts of cash. They're the smartest people in politics, if you ask me. And the most despicable, in many cases.
RG: But then again, Ron Paul didn't have any consultants, and look how that turned out.
RG: What's the word I'm looking for? Oh, yes: badly. It turned out badly.
NC: Still better than anyone really expected. Look at the other guys that couldn't last hardly a month. Gilmore, former VA gov. Thompson, former WI gov. Hit the fuckin' road jack!
NC: RP is still in this thing, and he's outraising these other guys. It's remarkable in that respect.
NC: But yes, he keeps losing.
RG: I really want to see what his delegates are like at the convention.
NC: I saw quite an interesting collection of them in Iowa.
NC: Young kids, lots of college kids. Some regular lookin' folks. Then, your pony-tailed militia types.
NC: By the way, they had FIVE cops at his victory party. Fred Thompson's party was at the same hotel, had zero.
NC: And they were actually needed
NC: Some guy got up. He started talking about how there was fraud at some of the caucus sites
NC: People are like, yeah!
NC: Then, he jumped the rails.
NC: Started talking about how there's a plan to assassinate Ron Paul if he performs well in Iowa, and that he personally disclosed this information to Paul's wife the night before.
NC: That's when he lost the crowd. Crickets chirping. Cops escorting. etc.
RG : McCain will enlist this guy to introduce him at the convention
NC: I could get behind that. Why not?
RG: John McCain will do what he pleases in this election! If John McCain wants a horse as his running mate, then a horse will be John McCain's running mate!
NC: If he wins the nomination, McCain, at least in his mind, will be emulating President Camacho from Idiocracy. Guzzle a deuce quatro of Bud, flip off everyone, ride off on his chopper.
NC: Which generally speaking is kind of a good way to approach things, I suppose. Even if you're not running for president.
RG: I want more Fred Thompson, though: McCain will probably make him ambassador to Barbados, or create a new cabinet position: "Secretary of Keeping it Real."
NC: What an odd campaign that was. For as big a failure as it turned out to be, the guys at National Review were lovin' him. Which is usually the ticket to huge, huge success.
RG: I found it endlessly fascinating: because as much as you and I ripped on him, he had these flashes where he would come alive and you could see what people liked about him.
NC: Yeah, right. He definitely seems like the kind of guy who wouldn't much change who he was to win a campaign. Espec compared to people like Romney and Giuliani, who so dramatically changed their views for a shot at the title.
NC: Those guys better understand the value of having no shame in politics.
RG: Re: Giuliani. I get conflicting views on whether or not he actually did anything wrong in the way the campaign was run, or if he just never had a shot to begin with.
RG: To me, that's what separated Dodd/Biden/Richardson from occupying the same spot as Edwards: they didn't understand that you can just go back on your own biography and record when you're running for national office.
NC: Can or can't?
RG: Can. (ie, casting yourself as a friend of the working man event hough you used to work for Fortress Investment Group)
NC: Oh, right. Hell yes. Get away with as much as you can. It's amazing sometimes what people will believe.
RG: It's funny, I've had two separate people whose opinions I respect tell me in the two days that they think Brownback really missed the boat by dropping out.
NC: That right? I'm from Kansas, and I forgot about him completely.
NC: The Republican Party in Kansas is basically two parties, and he's in charge of the more conservative faction.
RG: I think he only raised like $200k. But then he screwed Romney by immediately endorsing McCain (back when he was still bringing up the rear).
NC: Romney is SO money! Brownback AND Tancredo!
NC: Oh wait, strike that.
NC: Where would Romno be if he had Brownback, I mean?
NC: In high cotton!
NC: It probably keeps him up at night. That and wasting his children's inheritance on a crazy dream.
RG: Trip! Tagg! Flip! Zap!
NC: You think Tagg's going, uh, dad, I know we're all nice Mormons and everything, but you're spending all of my money.
NC: And I'd like you to stop right fucking now.
RG : At this point, there is no real difference between Mitt Romney and Daniel Day Lewis' crazy oilman in There Will Be Blood
NC: Haven't seen. It's about oil ruling the world, right? 'Cause I do believe that.
NC: Which is why we should all teach your kids Chinese and Arabic.
RG: So you think Hillary pulls it out?
RG: Obviously not tomorrow, but in time?
NC: Always risky to bet against her money and organization. And Huma Abedin.
NC: You?
NC: And who do you think Taylor Hicks will endorse?
RG: Yeah, I agree with you: everyone is very taken with the notion he'll really roll her tomorrow, but I just don't see that. If you can't adequately poll New Hampshire, how are you going to get a firm read on California? Or Arizona?
RG: And then that brings up an interesting query: are conservatives opposed enough to Hillary Clinton that they will back John McCain?
RG: Taylor Hicks is tough: I could see him throwing his support behind Bloomberg/Hagel ticket, which would seem practically inevitable if the matchup is Clinton/McCain
NC: I understand he may be into hookers? Which means he might trend Republican according to a new story about the hooker trade at the summer conventions.
RG: If they are male hookers, he's backing Romney.
NC: There are a lot of consultants who would definitely want him to run. He's got some money they probably wouldn't mind taking.
NC: Taylor Hicks likes male hookers? Gigolos? I thought he liked pixie-haired blondes.
NC: And I don't know about those conservatives backing McCain. Some will say they are cool w/ him now.
NC: I loved seeing how Grover Norquist is, like, oh yeah, McCain could be alright with me if he promises not to raise taxes. Meanwhile, he knows that McCain's first act as president will be to launch a predator drone armed with a hellfire missile and have it circle Norquist's office. Those dudes do not like each other.
RG: I know, right? I also enjoy how Grover Norquist legitimately believes McCain legitimately gives a damn about Grover Norquist. Don't you know who I am?! I'm Grover Norquist
NC: Yeah, I'm the guy who used to ride down K Street on a tandem bicycle with Jack Abramoff! You know, Grover!
RG: Yeah, it got personal for them when Norquist and all the guys of that ilk tried to take down Lincoln Chafee in the Republican primary in '06: McCain swooped in with the Straight Talk Express and rolled those guys
RG: Which is exactly the kind of story that makes McCain's comeback so much fun. For anybody else, launching this vendetta against Americans for Tax Reform/Club For Growth would be a huge deal. It's just McCain's standard operating procedure
NC: The Viet Cong trained him well.
NC: BREAKING! PATAKI ENDORSES McCAIN!! It's all over folks!!
RG: God, that really was a murderers-row you guys had at the '04 convention: Pataki, then Zell Miller, then President Bush. That's a regular Algonquin Roundtable
NC: You can't beat that kind of milquetoasty appeal
NC: And craziness
RG: yeah, see, you were smart: you sandwiched the crazy with the milquetoasty
RG: I really wish I was around for more of the Zell Miller-era
NC: Those were the heydays. Look, we have crossover appeal - just look at this crazy ol coot over here
NC: He's in a jug band on Hee Haw. And is a Democrat!
RG: He was like Dana Carvey's Mean Old Man.
RG: How do you see McCain being as a candidate on the national stage?
NC: Dunno. Possibly very disorganized. From what I saw of how his senate office operates, it seemed quite clear that he's not a control freak.
RG: yup
NC: I will say this, if Obama wins, Saturday Nigh Live will have to bring back Tim Meadows.
NC: or Finesse Mitchell?
RG: Or just a small child who looks scared and confused when the big people start fighting
RG: Everybody in Dem seems to be salivating over the prospect of a Obama/McCain matchup: I disagree
NC: If they are salivating over any of this, they really need to reexamine their lives and start asking the tough questions.
RGGustini: I think he matches up better against Obama than Hillary, mainly because he and Hillary are politically very similar, and they respect one another. He and Obama don't like each other from what I've heard, and it would put McCain in scramble-mode, which is where he excels.
RG: When he sits on-stage and agrees with Hillary, he de-McCain's himself.
RG: You have to understand, these people haven't had a win in a while
NC: That's true. It's not all it's cracked up to be.
RG: At least not at this level. Which is part of the reason the tension has been so high, actually
NC: Unless you want to invade some other countries or something like that. Then you're totally in the catbird seat.
RG: Right, and the Dems, at least under Pelosi in the house, are far too disorganized to do any real score-settling
NC: Congress is a joke no matter who's in control. Having worked there, I say that without hesitation.
RG: That's why we need.... CHANGE
RG: Just vague, across-the-board change.
NC: Yeah, that's it. That'll make our lives better. Somehow.