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< BACK TO Fresh Intelligence Oscar Predictions, Using Numbers, Not Just Our GI Track
MAN OF MYSTERY Oscar (Photo: Getty Images) Sure, Jon Stewart will acknowledge the awkwardness throughout, and mine it for humor, but mostly everyone will lay low, pass the gravy, hand out the trophies and get out alive. The only raging debate is No Country for Old Men or There Will Be Blood, and really they're both movies about dudes (bad ones) with similar tones (dark, intense) and some of the same players (uber producer Scott Rudin produced No Country and exec-produced There Will Be Blood, meaning he'd only get the trophy if the first one wins, but wouldn't be too bummed if Blood took it). George Clooney is calling himself the "Hillary Clinton" of this year's awards, and he's mid-backlash, so expect him to stay off the stage. But remember through it all: The Oscars are as much about the strength of the marketing and publicity campaigns as they are about the strengths of the films themselves. With that in mind, Radar came up with a super scientific means of measuring this: Google, Lexis, and Technorati search result numbers (nominee+movie title+oscar+win in search field). Pseudo scientific picks after the jump. Best Picture Michael Clayton No Country for Old Men *There Will Be Blood Breaking it down: The buzz around tinsel town and the momentum's on No Country for Old Men, but our super scientific methods predict There Will Be Blood will score a not-so surprising upset. Best Director *Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood) Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) Jason Reitman (Juno) Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton) Breaking it down: Same deal here. The logical bet is on the Coens, who just won the DGA award and have a larger body of work for the Academy to do their "Best Director is actually a lifetime achievement award" thing, but our methods foresee P.T. swooping in with the upset. Best Actress Ellen Page (Juno) Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age) Laura Linney (The Savages) Breaking it down: Cotillard peaked too early, she's French, and people liked her performance but were less enthused about the film. Ellen Page's performance has garnered her tons of attention, but she's young, and you know, has a really bright future ahead of her. The campaign for Julie Christie has been strong, brought to you by the Lionsgate masterminds who got Crash the big prize. And, she's an older dame in a small but praised movie the Academy will want to reward. Best Actor George Clooney (Michael Clayton) Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street) Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah) Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises) Breaking it down: In case you hadn't heard, people are pretty into Daniel Day-Lewis's performance. There are hints at a backlash lurking in the shadows, but it's too little, too late to effect this race. Best Supporting Actress Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There) Saoirse Ronan (Atonement) Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone) *Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton) Breaking it down: This category is the most unpredictable of the major ones this year, and our numbers aren't really helpful here. Though Cate Blanchett's always an Academy fave, she's nominated in two categories and likely to cancel herself out. The awards campaign ad for the creepy little girl from Atonement was just a little picture of her eyes alongside Keira and James looking hot, not really bringing out Ronan herself. Ryan could sweep in for the upset, but you know, she's a newcomer who should feel honored just to be nominated. That leaves it to Dee who has age and Civil Rights cred on her side, and Swinton, who has arty cache, a bigger movie, and slightly (but not much) more time onscreen. We're going with Swinton, but don't bet the good booze on this one. Best Supporting Actor Philip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson's War) Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford) Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild) Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton) Breaking it down: Bardem's win is the surest thing of the night. The Academy loves a performance with a brave hairstyle, and he's handily not competing with Daniel Day-Lewis. Adapted screenplay *Away from Her, Written by Sarah Polley No Country for Old Men, Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen There Will Be Blood,Written for the screen by Paul Thomas Anderson Breaking it down: We're going to go out on a sleep-deprived limb here, and follow our sketchy numbers and say Away from Her scores a surprise upset here. It's based on an Alice Munro story, which is sort of less obvious than Cormac McCarthy but a bit more accessible than an old Upton Sinclair novel. Original screenplay Lars and the Real Girl, Written by Nancy Oliver Michael Clayton, Written by Tony Gilroy Ratatouille, Screenplay by Brad Bird, Story by Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco, Brad Bird The Savages, Written by Tamara Jenkins Breaking it down: This will be where Juno gets its reward (and, it's made over $100 million at the box office, so it deserves a reward, preferably before the DVD release). And, this is an easy category for the Academy to reward an indie film it has no intention of really giving the big trophy to. (See Sideways.) Plus, Diablo Cody is a hot young thing with a number of projects in development, including a TV series with Spielberg, so it behooves Hollywood to really anoint her and give her stripper-cum-screenwriter Cinderella story a proper Hollywood ending. 
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